Predicting the Unpredictable: Lessons from the Most Important Supplement Shift of the Decade

How a chance encounter in February 2020 revealed a multibillion-dollar shift in human behavior...and what it means for the next decade of wellness.

In February 2020, I chatted casually with a prominent dietary supplement entrepreneur and made a prediction that, in hindsight, felt like a "glitch in the matrix."

"What's a SKU/Segment/Category that's selling way more than people realize?"

I told him that the Cold, Flu, and Immunity market was growing at a pace far beyond what most industry pundits realized ["receipts" included within the below video], and it could be the ultimate "under the radar" opportunity. Little did I know, the world was about to change forever, turning that insight into a staggering reality.

By the end of 2020, this category didn't just grow...but the Nutrition Business Journal reported retail sales of immunity-specific supplements exploded 72.3% YoY. And that shift has been mostly permanent, as the seasonal niche (driven by winter sniffles) has transformed into a year-round, powerhouse adding somewhere around $2 billion in incremental spending in a single year.

Key Insight: The "Machiavellian twist" here isn't just about the growth, as it’s more about the behavioral shift. We have largely moved from "reactive treatment' to "proactive fortification," with consumers no longer waiting to get sick...as they're optimizing their biological "defense budgets" daily.

If you aren't looking at "Immunity 2.0," which now includes stress-related immune health, gut-lung axis support, and elements of personalized nutrition...you're probably missing the next wave of opportunities.

The best time to predict a trend is before it’s obvious...but second best time is to capitalize on the permanent shifts those trends leave behind!